Thursday, May 29, 2008

It Works with Donkeys, not with Serious Countries

"A heavy-handed sticks and carrots policy may work with donkeys but not with serious countries. The United States would have a better chance of success if the White House abandoned its threats of military action and its calls for regime change". In the below article published in the Washington Post on the 27th of May 2008, Zbigniew Brzezinski (a National Security Adviser in the Carter Administration) and William Odom (a retired Army lieutenant general, and a former director of the National Security Agency), criticize the US policy towards the Islamic Republic and examine other constructive options. Both are affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Arabdemocracy

A Sensible Path on Iran

By Zbigniew Brzezinski and William Odom

Image: www.bbc.co.uk

Current U.S. policy toward the regime in Tehran will almost certainly result in an Iran with nuclear weapons. The seemingly clever combination of the use of "sticks" and "carrots," including the frequent official hints of an American military option "remaining on the table," simply intensifies Iran's desire to have its own nuclear arsenal. Alas, such a heavy-handed "sticks" and "carrots" policy may work with donkeys but not with serious countries. The United States would have a better chance of success if the White House abandoned its threats of military action and its calls for regime change.

Consider countries that could have quickly become nuclear weapon states had they been treated similarly. Brazil, Argentina and South Africa had nuclear weapons programs but gave them up, each for different reasons. Had the United States threatened to change their regimes if they would not, probably none would have complied. But when "sticks" and "carrots" failed to prevent India and Pakistan from acquiring nuclear weapons, the United States rapidly accommodated both, preferring good relations with them to hostile ones. What does this suggest to leaders in Iran?

To look at the issue another way, imagine if China, a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and a country that has deliberately not engaged in a nuclear arms race with Russia or the United States, threatened to change the American regime if it did not begin a steady destruction of its nuclear arsenal. The threat would have an arguable legal basis, because all treaty signatories promised long ago to reduce their arsenals, eventually to zero. The American reaction, of course, would be explosive public opposition to such a demand. U.S. leaders might even mimic the fantasy rhetoric of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad regarding the use of nuclear weapons.

A successful approach to Iran has to accommodate its security interests and ours. Neither a U.S. air attack on Iranian nuclear facilities nor a less effective Israeli one could do more than merely set back Iran's nuclear program. In either case, the United States would be held accountable and would have to pay the price resulting from likely Iranian reactions. These would almost certainly involve destabilizing the Middle East, as well as Afghanistan, and serious efforts to disrupt the flow of oil, at the very least generating a massive increase in its already high cost. The turmoil in the Middle East resulting from a preemptive attack on Iran would hurt America and eventually Israel, too.

Given Iran's stated goals -- a nuclear power capability but not nuclear weapons, as well as an alleged desire to discuss broader U.S.-Iranian security issues -- a realistic policy would exploit this opening to see what it might yield. The United States could indicate that it is prepared to negotiate, either on the basis of no preconditions by either side (though retaining the right to terminate the negotiations if Iran remains unyielding but begins to enrich its uranium beyond levels allowed by the Non-Proliferation Treaty); or to negotiate on the basis of an Iranian willingness to suspend enrichment in return for simultaneous U.S. suspension of major economic and financial sanctions.

Such a broader and more flexible approach would increase the prospects of an international arrangement being devised to accommodate Iran's desire for an autonomous nuclear energy program while minimizing the possibility that it could be rapidly transformed into a nuclear weapons program. Moreover, there is no credible reason to assume that the traditional policy of strategic deterrence, which worked so well in U.S. relations with the Soviet Union and with China and which has helped to stabilize India-Pakistan hostility, would not work in the case of Iran. The widely propagated notion of a suicidal Iran detonating its very first nuclear weapon against Israel is more the product of paranoia or demagogy than of serious strategic calculus. It cannot be the basis for U.S. policy, and it should not be for Israel's, either.

An additional longer-range benefit of such a dramatically different diplomatic approach is that it could help bring Iran back into its traditional role of strategic cooperation with the United States in stabilizing the Gulf region. Eventually, Iran could even return to its long-standing and geopolitically natural pre-1979 policy of cooperative relations with Israel. One should note also in this connection Iranian hostility toward al-Qaeda, lately intensified by al-Qaeda's Web-based campaign urging a U.S.-Iranian war, which could both weaken what al-Qaeda views as Iran's apostate Shiite regime and bog America down in a prolonged regional conflict.

Last but not least, consider that American sanctions have been deliberately obstructing Iran's efforts to increase its oil and natural gas outputs. That has contributed to the rising cost of energy. An eventual American-Iranian accommodation would significantly increase the flow of Iranian energy to the world market. Americans doubtless would prefer to pay less for filling their gas tanks than having to pay much more to finance a wider conflict in the Persian Gulf.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Mabrouk (or the silly euphoria)

By Joseph El-Khoury


In psychological jargon the term selective abstraction refers to when a person dismisses the positive and focuses on the negative aspects of a particular situation. Since the Doha accord, engineered with great personal effort by the Qatari dynasty and other Arab regimes, the Lebanese seem to be engaged in a reverse process of completely ignoring vital information that might suggest that all is not right in the country of the Cedar despite the impending election of the only candidate to the Presidential election, General Michel Suleiman. While this tendency allows them to bounce back and make the best of any hint of opportunity , as witnessed by the white balloons, the self-congratulatory (Mabrouk) emails, the rush on airline bookings and the 25% increase in the share price of SOLIDERE; this unfounded optimism carries in it the seeds of the next crisis to come. Without indulging in cruelty I will attempt to remind them of the negative elements in their current state of affairs:

-They are electing for the second consecutive time an Army general with no popular support, no political program and the military establishment as his last refuge.

-They have again interpreted, modified and frankly wiped their bums with the nation’s constitution to the point that its validity as a useful reference document has to be questioned.

-The media war between various factions shows no sign of let down with accusations of treason and counter treason.

-While a cabinet of national unity might defuse the tension on the street, previous experience with that format have led to stagnation and inefficiency in government.

-Instead of a direct confrontation between the Shiite and Sunni factions, the nearing electoral contest is likely to heighten tensions within the Christian street, as other constituencies are more or less guaranteed to one or the other of the dominating sectarian tribes.

-The issue of Hezbollah’s weapons has not been resolved. There is less of a consensus on them than ever before and any clash with Israel is likely to resurrect internal grievances.

-Other factions are likely to continue rearming following the defeat they suffered at the hand of opposition militias.

-The economic situation is dire for the majority of the population. Its resolution is not a priority for any of the major parties.

- There has been no improvement in the relationship with neighbouring Syria.

-The perpetrators of the assassinations and other act of terrors since 2005 have still not been identified. The international tribunal for Lebanon remains an empty promise.

-The situation of Palestinian refugees remains dramatic. While the threat of their ‘settlement’ is used in the internal political bazaar they remain economical and social pariahs in the country where many of them were born since 1948.

- Secularism is not on the agenda.

I probably missed something and would be gladly reminded of it. On the positive side General Suleiman’s primary school teacher reassured us in an Al-Jazeera interview that the young Michel was ‘popular at school with every other pupil requesting to be sat next to him’. I breathe a sigh of relief!

Friday, May 23, 2008

The Gun of Joseph Samaha

By Bachir Habib

Picture: Al Akhbar Newspaper - www.al-akhbar.com

Every Lebanese and Arab citizen concerned about the events in Lebanon would know Al-Akhbar newspaper. This newspaper in a way transformed the landscape of political journalism in Lebanon. It was established according to the plan and idea of its real founder, Joseph Samaha, who died from a sudden heart attack in 2007.
Despite the image Al Akhbar tried hard to promote as a landmark in investigative journalism in Lebanon, it was considered from its first edition as speaking in the name of Hezbollah and the opposition in Lebanon (8th of March). This is actually the political side Joseph Samaha chose following the assassination of late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005.
However, if Samaha’s journalistic heritage was very much respected in Lebanon and the Arab World; it is essentially because of his ability to point his gun in an unexpected direction and against the common wisdom. Repeatedly during his career, later events showed that Samaha was right in choosing his targets. It is yet to be proven that Samaha made the right choice in aligning Al Akhbar to Hezbollah’s positions two years ago and in using this new and modern journalistic platform to gloss the party’s image by promoting it as a natural successor to the leftist liberation movements of the 1960’s and 70’s.
It is unfortunately a false image and a false analogy, which while widely shared within the Arab masses, tends to forget that Hezbollah is a Shiite communitarian party (and this goes beyond only having its roots in Islamic tradition as is the case for the AKP in Turkey). Our masses forget as well about the Iranian dimension of Hezbollah, and the fact that the party of god is considered by Teheran as the only successful exportation of the principles of the Islamic Revolution.
Khaled Saghiyeh, a disciple of Samaha wrote an outstanding piece in Al Akhbar on 21/05/08. I would not have been surprised if this article was published under Joseph Samaha’s name.
Saghiyeh titled his article “Shame and Sadness”. In it he expresses his deception regarding the outcome of the Lebanese Agreement of Doha and he rightly points that the Agreement regenerates the communitarian equation on one hand and gives Lebanon on the other hand a new President, who does not have a political record and who has not yet announced any plan or vision for the country.
I may be a long way from changing my mind about Al Akhbar newspaper and its misleading political project, regardless of the very valid occasional investigative social journalism accomplished in a very professional manner. But in the case of Saghiyeh’s article, I simply felt that the writer had finally taken Samaha’s gun from its box, and let the gun guide his hand to point it in the right direction: sectarianism.
This was a successful shot, and hopefully for Al Akhbar there will be others, as we come to close the era of 8th v/s 14th of March equation. The funerals of this era took place in Qatar on the 21st of May 2008, and the condolences will follow in the Lebanese Parliament, on the 25th of May 2008, the day where our designated President will be "Elected".

Link to Khaled Saghyieh's Article: http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/74433

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

The Lebanese Delusion

By Bassem Hassan

Picture: www.criticaltimes.com.au, edited by Arabdemocracy:
In the original version it said: "Explain again your definition of Terrorism?..."

I must admit to a disturbing mix of amusement and resignation at reading the articles appearing recently on this site relating to the latest episode of the permanent crisis that is Lebanon. On the one hand, I find myself amused by the grand-standing, over-poetic and hyper dramatized style- to the point of comedy- of the open letters to this, that or the other leader. On the other hand, I am resigned- no depressed- at the completely off-target content of these said letters and articles.
In some sense the dramatized style and the off-target content are a perfect fit. Not only do they go well together stylistically, they also make sense conceptually. This is because both style and content are symptoms of serious intellectual disorder called- or should be called- the Lebanese Delusion.
The Lebanese Delusion –LD for short- takes many forms. In its most mundane, and relatively harmless, form it manifests itself as a belief that “we the Lebanese” are somehow special, different, superior at the individual level. A slightly more dangerous sub-type of the disorder takes the form of cultural superiority of each and every one of the Lebanese “communities”- a euphemism for religious sects of course- over the others, and consequently over the rest of humanity. However, the most virulent variant of the LD virus is that of pseudo-intellectual recasting of the backwards tribal war that underlies Lebanese politics into some ridiculous fairy tale of ideological struggle.
Ladies and Gentlemen: forgive me if I burst your bubble. The conflict in Lebanon is not an ideological struggle between two different visions for the state, or for Lebanon’s place in the region and the world. It is- as it has always been- a conflict over economic and political power between shifting secterian alliances. No more, no less. The first priority for each political organization in Lebanon is to secure supremacy, or as much of it as possible, within its own sect. The second priority is to secure as great a share as possible of the spoils of the ruins of the state, and the corruption of the socio-economic condition of the citizen. This, the various organizations within each sect do by shifting political alliances with organizations within other sects.
Hard to believe? Disappointing perhaps? Just when you thought that some bigger, more important conceptual issue was at stake. Liberal democracy vs. Islamic fundamentalism. Wouldn’t that be cute for all you 14 Marchers? Or, resistance and national sovereignty vs. subjugation to the American project, for the 8 Marchers among you? But please don’t take my word for it. Go to Lebanon and talk to the people on the street. Ask them what they think is going on. Watch Future TV, Al-Manar or LBC. Listen to the religious leaderships of the various mafias- sorry sects. Attend local functions- weddings, funerals, you name it- in the small towns and villages. Do that, and you will experience the quasi-fascist rationalization for the hate we have for one another first hand.
No, there is nothing grand, ideological or honorable about the Lebanese political scene. It is time for the lot of you to wake up and smell the gun powder. It may cure you from LD. But if that doesn’t do it, hopefully AD will.
Brussels, 20 May 2008.

Monday, May 19, 2008

Our apologies, Palestine!

Picture by Rina Castelnuovo for the NYTimes


On Arabdemocracy we had planned to mark the Nakba with a post dedicated to the 60th Anniversary. Unfortunately the turn of events in Lebanon over the past week derailed our plans. Things are far from settled in Beirut but life (and death) continues in other parts of the Middle East.

The President of the United States sought to mark the day by renewing his vows towards the 'only democracy in the Middle East'. In his unequivocal manner he stated his country's past, present and future policy in relation to the Arab-Israeli conflict. The speech is long but a delight to read to everyone who has ever doubted the US position.

I found the concluding paragraphs fascinating for their crystal clarity.

"Sixty years ago, on the eve of Israel's independence, the last British soldiers departing Jerusalem stopped at a building in the Jewish quarter of the Old City. An officer knocked on the door and met a senior rabbi. The officer presented him with a short iron bar -- the key to the Zion Gate -- and said it was the first time in 18 centuries that a key to the gates of Jerusalem had belonged to a Jew. His hands trembling, the rabbi offered a prayer of thanksgiving to God, "Who had granted us life and permitted us to reach this day." Then he turned to the officer, and uttered the words Jews had awaited for so long: "I accept this key in the name of my people."

Over the past six decades, the Jewish people have established a state that would make that humble rabbi proud. You have raised a modern society in the Promised Land, a light unto the nations that preserves the legacy of Abraham and Isaac and Jacob. And you have built a mighty democracy that will endure forever and can always count on the United States of America to be at your side. God bless".


Thank you President Bush, we will miss your straight-talking.

The editorial Team at Arabdemocracy


The official version of the speech can be found on
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2008/05/15/text_of_president_bushs_speech_to_the_israeli_parliament/?page=5

Saturday, May 17, 2008

أن يموت الخونة... وتنتصر المقاومة

نداء الغزال

أتتنا أخبار الموت بسرعة فلم نستعدّ له بما يليق به ولم ننتحب ولم نبكِ، فهذا موت مختلف إنه موت الخونة! إنه موت الآخر الذي لا يشبهنا.
إنه موت الآخر الذي لا نريده. إنه الصوت الذي نريده ساكتا. لذلك تطلّب منا أن نخرس جميعا وننتظرَ قدوم موتنا. إن المقاومة التي طهّرت لبنان من العدو الإسرائيلي تقوم اليوم بتطهير الساحة اللبنانية من العدو الداخلي. الخائن. ولسوء الحظ هذه المرة.. العدو... لبناني..
دعني أعيد صياغة هذه الجملة لتبدو اقرب الى لغتنا الصحافية العربية المعهودة: لقد قامت عناصر المقاومة (الحزب الإلهي) بالقضاء على العدو الصهيوني الغاشم الذي يتربص بأرضنا وقضت على جميع محاولات العدو الراغبة باغتصاب الأرض اللبنانية. وكما وُعدنا فلقد أستطاع هذا الجيش التخلص من الأصوات المعارضة في الداخل اللبناني ولقد نجح بقتلها وكم أفواهها.
أصبح للمقاومة اليوم عدوّان، العدو الإسرائيلي والعدو اللبناني، فهنيئا للمقاومة وهنيئا لنا نحن اللبنانيين حزبا إلهيا يريد إسكاتنا أو بالأحرى قتلنا إذا عارضناه...أو خنّاه ...هنا أريد طرح بعض الأسئلة لعل عناصر المقاومة الأبرار يستطيعون الإجابة عنها.

ما هو تعربف الخيانة وعقابها؟

ما معنى المقاومة عندما يصبح العدو الذي تقاتل لبنانيا؟

هل للخائن شكل معين أم أنه يشبهنا جميعا؟هل القتلى الذين فارقوا الحياة في معركة التطهير الأخيرة شهداء الوطن أم قتلاه؟
هل انتصر الحزب الإلهي وعلى من؟
وبمناسبة هذا الانتصار قررنا نحن اللبنانيين المقيمين خارج الوطن، ولتعذرنا عن الاحتفال بهذا النصر في لبنان، إقامة حفل كبير يليق بنصرك.

لحظة من فضلك

اعتذر بالمناسبة لعدم قدرتنا على اطلاق الرصاص ابتهاجا لاننا لا نملك بنادق كالتي تملكها ولا نؤمن بلغتها، ولاننا لو فعلنا ذلك هنا، فالدولة لا تمزح، سوف نرمى في السجن بالتأكيد.
لكننا سنحتفل على طريقتنا، سنسكر حتى الثمالة، فهذا حق تحميه دولتنا المضيفة
سنفعل كل ذلك لكي ننسى أنك وعدتنا ذات يوم أنك لن ترفع بنادقك في وجوهنا وصدقناك، الا ان الوعد لم يكم صادقا.
سوف نرقص حتى الوجع كي نشعر بالألم الذي تشعر به جميع الأسر اللبنانية التي فقدت أحد أفرادها.
وسوف نمارس الجنس بفجور، ونعدك بأن لا نغطي وجوهنا كما فعل المقاومون الذين اقتحموا بيوت وشوارع بيروت لأننا غير خائفين وسوف نسعى للوصول الى النشوة نفسها التي شعر بها المقاتلون عندما أوقعوا ... القتيل تلوَ الآخر! بعد ذلك كله، سوف نجهش بالبكاء لنغسل خطيئة اننا صدّقناك وآمنّا بك وبأنك لن تقتلنا ولن تكم أفواهنا.
ولكننا سنعتذر من أصدقائنا الذين لم يؤمنوا بك يوما.
وأخيرا أريد أن أقول لك أيها الحزب الإلهي بأننا لسنا بحاجة إلى ألوهية نصرك فقد خذلتنا الوهيتك وخذلتك.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Dear Mister PM of the Lebanese Republic

The open letter Joseph El Khoury addressed via Arabdemocracy to the Secretary General of Hizbullah Hassan Nasrallah generated many constructive comments regardless of whether they agree or not with the writer. Below a reply to the letter showing how strong the arguments in both sides can be. But the most important is that these two letters show how deep the Lebanese fracture is and how large is the space separating the two Lebanese parallels that might not intersect in infinity.

Bachir Habib

Arabdemocracy


By Marwan Madi

It appears that you and I have much in common. To the best of my knowledge we are both Lebanese, we both love our country, and we also fans of poetry, good literature, and Fairuz. I am not sure who your favorite writers are Mister Prime Minister, but I am particularly drawn to Khalil Gibran and Voltaire – two great writers in my humble opinion - whose search for more light and the truth in their writings brought comfort to me in times of trouble and discomfort.

In these times of uncertainty in the homeland, as you might expect, I find myself searching for answers yet again in the writings of these two great gentlemen. In his essays on the meaning of law, Gibran warns against those man-made laws that are a reflection of our own likeness which can be washed off by angry waters much like the sands of the seas. Voltaire, on the other hand, believes we are guilty of the good we have not done.

Mister Prime Minister, since you took office three years ago, your government has made many promises that have yet to bear fruit.

Mister Prime Minister, where are we on the new electoral law?
Mister Prime Minister, where are we on installing a government of national unity? You claim that your party holds the majority of views in our land but you must stand corrected sir as the nation is clearly divided, though recent reports indicate the opposition is gaining ground.
Mister Prime Minister, you have promised relief to the people affected by the war in 2006, but there are reports that prove your government’s contribution has been nil at best?
Mister Prime Minister, Hezbollah is no longer the only armed militia in Lebanon , are you aware? Mister Prime Minister, we are repeating the mistakes of the past and wishing for better solutions.
Mister Prime Minister, our economy is soar, our people are leaving, and we are divided on sectarian grounds again.
Mister Prime Minister, what has your government achieved over the past three years?
Mister Prime Minister, you claim your resignation is an open ticket for Syria and Iran to meddle in Lebanese Affairs, but aren’t your current policies a reflection of Saudi Arabia ’s agenda in the Middle East and more particularly in Lebanon ?
Mister Prime Minister, shouldn’t we work toward policies that reflect our interests first?
Mister Prime Minister, for the past nine years I convinced myself that my experience and education in the United States of America, a country I proudly call home away from home, will only help, upon my return to Lebanon, to better prepare me to contribute to the building of a viable nation; a republic founded on equality, fraternity, and truth; a nation where men and women hold equal rights and duties; a nation free from religion but not against it; a nation that cares about its environment and the well being of its people, all its people; a nation that works with as opposed to for other nations; a nation that for once in its history will decide its own faith.

Mister Prime Minister, does your government have a vision? If so, is this vision inclusive of all the citizens of Lebanon ?

Mister Prime Minister, I am proud to be the son of Lebanon, the land that produced Gibran, Fairuz, Hiram Abiff, and many other great minds, but I am disappointed with the way my government has conducted business since 2005. Your government, sir, called for the establishment of an accountable system to fairly evaluate the performance of public officials.

Your government continues to blame the oppositions for the current situation in Lebanon, however; with governance comes responsibility.

It is high time Mister Prime Minister for a government of national unity, a government that reflects the interests of Lebanon first and foremost without disrupting our regional and global relationships. Only then would the turmoil in Lebanon ends. Only then, Mister Prime Minister, the many bright Lebanese both locally and abroad would regain trust in the homeland and contribute to the construction of a sound and viable republic.


A Concerned Lebanese Citizen

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

لكم لبنانكم ولي ... غربتي

د. باسم حسن
Lebanese immigrants gathered to celebrate a Christening in 1904.
Photo courtesy of Mary Costa, Pretoria, South Africa, 1904 (www.mari.org)


أخي الموطن (اللبناني طبعًا)

مرحبا ويعطيك العافية. اسمح لي First of all ، إنو هنّيك على استئناف الحرب الأهليّة بعد توقّف قسري دام حوالي ال 20 سنة. أرجو أن تتقبل اعتذار جميع القوى المحليّة والإقليميّة والدوليّة عن هذا الانقطاع غير المقصود عن الحرب يلّي كانت كثير cool وسمحت لعدد هائل من الجيل الماضي بممارسة بطولات وتضحيات جمّة عمّدت التحالفات بدمك، يا أخي المواطن، وشكّلت أرضيّة خصبة لإعادة رسم خريطة "العيش المشترك"، حفظه الله وأدامه لنا جميعًا pour toujours

اليوم يقف لبنان على شفير الهاوية. والوقوف على شفير الهاوية أحلى مما تتصوّر يا صديقي المواطن. ذلك أن شفير الهاوية "مهوي" النسيم فيه عليل والمنظر خلاب. بالإضافة إلى وقوفه على شفير الهاوية، يعيش لبنان لحظة مصيريّة. Please note ، إنو لبنان يعيش دائمًا وأبدًا لحظات مصيريّة. بتعبير آخر، كل لحظات لبنان مصيريّة، والحمد لله. شو بدّك أحلى من هيك يا حضرة المواطن؟ أنت عضو فعّال في مجتمع كل لحظة من زمنه مصيريّة. فهنيئًا لك هذه الجمهوريّة. وبما أن لبنان يقف على شفير الهاوية ويعيش لحظة مصيريّة، كان لا بد أن تنبثق عن هذه ال combination حرب جديدة. دعني أفسّر. You see أخي المواطن، الحرب التي توقّفت عام 1995 توقّفت بسبب الإرهاق ولأن جيلاً ما كان يحارب قد تعب من عبثيتها. لم تتوقّف الحرب لأن أسبابها حلّت أو لأنّ فريقًا هزم فريقًا آخر. توقّفت لأن أدواتها، وليس أسبابها، استُنزفت. أما اليوم فهناك جيل جديد، يقوده زعماء قدامى، جاهز لبذل الغالي والرّخيص لإعلاء كلمة الحقّ ونصرة الوطن على جميع المتآمرين عليه من قوى إقليميّة وعملائهم المحلّيين، بغض النظر طبعًا عن كون هذا الجيل الجديد لا يفهم كوعه من بوعه (أصلاً ما هو البوع؟)

يعرف الجيل الجديد من اللبنانيين الأشاوس أنه يستحق، كما جيل آبائه، حربه الخاصّة لكي يثبت للبابا والماما أنه هو أيضًا بطل خارق يستطيع أن يحرق الأخضر، إضافةً إلى اليابس. ولكن الأخضر أهمّ لأن مين ماكان يستطيع أن يحرق اليابس. ولكن الأخضر لا يستطيع حرقه إلا الرّجال الحقيقيّين. وبما أن لبنان أخضر وبما أننا نحن اللبنانيّون "أسد غاب متى ساورتنا الفتن" توجّب على هذا الجيل الجديد أن يحرق لبنان لكي يقوم طائر الفينيق من بين الرماد.

ولكن لنعد إلى الجدّ. الواقع والحقيقة، بلا مواربة وكذب، هي أننا كلبنانيّين نكره بعضنا البعض. انتبه! أخي المواطن، نحن نحبّ لبنان بل نعشقه، ولكننا نكره بعضنا. بالإضافة إلى هذا الكره العتيق، لسنا متّفقين على هويّة واحدة ولا على رؤية واحدة للأسس الّتي يجب أن يقوم عليها وطننا. لذلك، توجّب علينا أن نقتل بعضنا بعضًا. ولا بأس في ذلك. It’s OK إنما أرجو أن تحسموها هذه المرة. يعني رجاءً فلتستمرّ الحرب إلى أن ينتصر فريق منكم على الآخر بشكل نهائيّ وقاطع. خلّصونا من قصّة لا غالب ولا مغلوب. إن لم يكن من حرق الأخضر بد، فمن العار ألا تكملوا المشوار حتى النّهاية. هذا لبنانكم، لبنان التخلّف والحقد والتّعصّب الأعمى. لبنان الطائفيّة والعنصريّة والغرور الفارغ. لبنان الستة آلاف سنة من اللاّشيء يذكر. عيب أن تحرقوه "نصّ- نصّ"! دمّروه كلّيًا ثمّ أعيدوا بناءَه وفق مقاييس الرّابح منكم. لكم لبنانكم، فلا تستهتروا به.

من زمان غابر كتب جبران خليل جبران "لكم لبنانكم ولي لبناني". ووصف لبنانه- الحلم. تذكّروا جميعًا أن جبران مات في الغربة. سبحان الصّدف!

Brussels

10/05/08

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Dear Sayyed Hassan

By Joseph El-Khoury

Picture courtesy of http://www.nowlebanon.com/

I am Lebanese, for more than 10 years…just like you. And I happen to love my country…just like you.

Our paths have never crossed. And since the 7th May I hope they never do. I am writing this following the ‘liberation’ of Beirut by your brave and loyal fighters after two days of heavy fighting that brought us back to the ugly days of the 1980s. At the time you were in the early days of building your resistant organisation slowly and quietly while keeping away from the absurd infighting plaguing other militias. You went on to defeat the mighty Israeli army once in 2000 and again in 2006. I bet you did not expect that one day your men would be pleased with having seized control of Corniche El Mazraa.

Sayyed Hasan! Let me start by saying that I do not share your views on God, religion, alcohol, sex, music, women rights, taste in movies, relations with Syria and a lot more. I reckon that we do agree that the Palestinian question is central and that peace with Israel is not an option unless of a fair and just solution for it. How this is achieved is a matter of debate that would most likely end up in a disagreement. Unfortunately neither debate nor disagreement is possible in a Beirut under the control of an armed militia whatever moral high ground it holds. You talk of the ‘resistance’ as an abstract concept that you and only you engage in, in the name of a divine mission. Resistance for the sake of Resistance is neither constructive nor desirable. Your resistance is Islamic, more specifically Shia Islamic. Nonetheless you state nationalist credentials, supported by a collection of allies that the devil himself would hesitate to claim as his. But I have bad news for you. At least 50% of the nation’s population do not support you and have learnt to loathe and fear you over the past few days.

Trust me Sayyed Hassan. This country does not deserve a resistance of Hezbollah’s calibre. Lebanon is at best a whore house corrupted by Western influence and the Lebanese are mostly cowards with no sense of duty (obviously you and your men are not included in that sample). This people cannot live up to your expectations and will fail you again in the near future. Already we have dragged you kicking and screaming into Hamra and Verdun when your only desire consists of facing the enemy in Shebaa and Maroun El-Rass. I wish we could help you find another place worthy of your effort and leave us be to our incurable moral and social corruption. Or at least, if our questions are a nuisance and our presence a hindrance in the path towards divine victory then at least provide us with a timetable. We would leave you and other patriots to get on with the business of resistance. We promiss to come back (if you allow us back of course) when you are done.

Friday, May 9, 2008

Hezbollah!Peek-a-Boo...You are not the Shiites representative

By Nadine Sibai


SO THEY LIBERATED THE SOUTH OF LEBANON. GREAT SUCCESS! AND SO THEY WON THE JULY WAR. GOOD FOR THEM!! WHAT IS NEXT? HAVE THEY NOT MADE UP ENOUGH EXCUSES TO KEEP THEIR HEGEMONY? HAVE THEY NOT MISLEAD AMPLE PEOPLE?THEY HAVE CLAIMED RESISTANCE, THEY HAVE TAKEN ON NATIONALISM--FAILING TO EVER IDENTIFY IT--, THEY HAVE ROLE PLAYED THE QUIET POLITE LAMB, THEY HAVE ASSERTED THAT WEAPONS ARE FOR THE MERE USE AGAINST ISRAEL... WE ALL KNEW THOSE CONCEPTS WEREN'T THE TOTAL TRUTH AND A HIDDEN AGENDA WAS AN EVIDENT CONCEALED ELEMENT (THOUGH WE HOPED OTHERWISE). HOWEVER, WE PLAYED THE GAME AND ARGUED WITH THEM ADAPTING THEIR OWN REASONING FORCING OURSELVES TO BE ON THE SAME WAVE LENGTH SO AS NOT TO ENTICE FURTHER DISPUTES. BUT LET'S BE FRANK. WHO COULD ARGUE WITH THEM KNOWING THAT BEHIND THEIR PSEUDO-ENLIGHTENED DIALOGUES ARE COPIOUS AMMUNITIONS?


WELL, DEAR HIZBULLAH, HERE IS A LETTER FOR YOU: YOU ARE A CAPITALIST 'ORGANIZATION'-- SHORT OF DEFINING THE TERM, RUNNING MONEY-CREATING OUTLETS ALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SUBURB OF BEIRUT, SOUTH LEBANON, AND THE BIQAA'. YOU BUILD YOUR GHETTO BENEFITING YOUR ' LOYAL CHILDREN OF THE SECT' EXCLUDING EVERY OTHER CHILDREN. YOU NEVER CARED ABOUT LABOURERS, TAXES, POWER CUTS, INFLATION. AND YOU NEVER BLAMED THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT FOR THEIR POLICIES WHEN YOU WERE SAT IN IT AND STILL PART OF THE COALITION. SO LET'S JUST IMMEDIATELY AND PERMANENTLY CROSS THIS ONE OUT OF YOUR LIST OF EXCUSES.YOU ARE NOT DEMOCRATIC AND HAVE JUST FAILED IN THE 'LEBANONITY' TEST. YOU SADLY AND UNFORTUNATELY CAN BE COMPARED TO OUR EVERLASTING ZIONIST ENEMY OF ISRAEL. YOU BOTH FEEL SUPERIOR AND THUS YOU DO WHAT 'YOU' THINK YOU ARE OUGHT TO DO DISREGARDING OTHER PEOPLES' BELIEFS, NEEDS AND EMOTIONS. YOU BOTH FAIL TO DEMONSTRATE AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITITES SCHEMA AS YOU CONTINUOUSLY DISRESPECT OTHER IDENTITIES AND PERSONAS SHARING YOUR LAND. YOUR PREVIOUS MARGINALIZATION BY PRE-EXISTING GOVERNMENTS DOES NOT JUSTIFY YOUR PRESENT ATROCITIES.


I EMPATHIZE WITH ALL THOSE FEELING RIDICULED AND FRUSTRATED. AND I FEEL SORRY FOR THOSE WHO ARE UNABLE TO MARCH DOWN THE STREETS HOLDING BANNERS STATING: "HIZBULLAH! THANK YOU FOR EVERYTHING BUT YOU DO NOT REPRESENT US. AND WE DO NOT WANT YOU".

Thursday, May 8, 2008

تجاوزوا الحواجز النفسية الاخيرة... انها الحرب الاهلية

بشير حبيب

Picture: Al-Akhbar newspaper www.al-akhbar.com

هل بدأت الحرب الاهلية في لبنان؟ هل تنفع التطمينات بأنها لن تحصل؟ هل هي حرب اهلية سنية شيعية ام حرب بين مشروع وطني ومشروع اميركي-اسرائيلي للنيل من المقاومة؟

كم تكثر الاجابات على هذه الاسئلة وكم ستتحفنا تطورات الايام المقبلة ببراهين واضحة تؤكد امرا واحدا لمن لا يزال يشكك يطبيعة النزاع اللبناني.

بكل بساطة هي حرب اهلية، كانت حتى اليوم باردة تخللتها منذ عام ونصف العام فترات وجيزة ساخنة، كانت ترتسم بعدها في كل مرة حدود النزاع البارد ومستلزماته وفقا للتعبئة الشعبية من قبل الفريقين الرئيسيين، ووفقا لما يمكن ان يستخدم من ادوات في الفترات الباردة التي تلحق التطورات الساخنة التي كانت تحصل.

مثالا على ذلك، الانتقال من التظاهر السلمي لفريقي 8 و 14 آذار، الى الاعتصام بشكل آخر ودائم للمعارضة في وسط بيروت ما غير قوانين اللعبة التي تقتصر على التظاهر ليوم واحد.

بعد ذلك جاءت احداث اضراب 23 كانون الثاني 2007 واسلوب التعبير من خلال قطع الطرق بالاطاارات المشتعلة من قبل المعارضة ما استفز الطرف الآخر شعبيا وكانت احداث جامعة بيروت العربية بعد يومين والظهور المسلح الاول لانصار تيار المستقبل، ما كسر حاجزا نفسيا آخر باتجاه اعتماد ظاهرة السلاح الفردي كواقع، وعملت الاحزاب الموالية والمعارضة على حد سواء على تسخيف هذا السلاح بالقول ان السلاح الفردي موجود اصلا في كل بيت لبناني.

وجاءت بعد كل ذلك ظاهرة استعمال السلاح ابتهاجا او تأييدا بعد كل كلمة متلفزة يلقيها احد الرموز السياسيين للطرفين، حتى انه تم قطع حواجز نفسية اخرى في هذا المجال وهي استعمال قذائف الار بي جي.

تجدر الاشارة هنا بأنه قبل عام تحديدا لم تكن هذه الظاهرة منتشرة الا في مناطق حزب الله بعد كلام امينه العام حسن نصر الله.

اليوم ليس صحيحا ان الوضع يختلف جذريا عما سبق قرارات الحكومة اللبنانية بتفكيك شبكة اتصالات حزب الله وازاحة رئيس جهاز امن مطار بيروت من منصبه بسبب قضية تنصت قد تكون تجري في المطار.

لقد اخطأ نصر الله بتوصيفه قرار الحكومة على انه اعلان حرب، لان ما يجري ليس الا استكمالا ساخنا لحرب اهلية باردة غذاها حزب الله بدهاء كبير من خلال اعطائه الذرائع لخصومه تدريجيا لاعادة ادخال ثقافة اظهار السلاح الفردي واستعماله عند الضرورة.

لقد بدأت مرحلة ترسيم حدود المناطق في بيروت وغير بيروت. قطع طرق، شبان في الازقة والشوارع الداخلية جاهزون للمواجهة حتى ولو انكفؤوا عن المحاور الرئيسية.

حاجز نفسي جديد تم تجاوزه، فللمرة الاولى منذ نهاية الحرب الاهلية عام 1990 تدوم اشتباكات داخلية اكثر من 24 ساعة.

حتى لو تم احتواء كل ما يجري خلال الساعات المقبلة، وهو امر مستبعد، فان الاكيد ان الحاجز النفسي الاخير قبل الحرب الاهلية الساخنة التي ستدوم قد اجتيز بجدارة وقد تكون المراحل المقبلة تتعلق بادارة العمليات العسكرية.

ولكن بالمناسبة، اين الجيش اللبناني؟


Monday, May 5, 2008

Egypt & Jordan: Where Strikes Fail


By Bachir Habib



Picture Galley: Courtesy of http://egyptianchronicles.blogspot.com/

In some countries, Jordan and Egypt for example, the only way to make a strike succeed is for the State to call for it. Imagine a State calling its workers and citizens to protest against the rise or prices of essential goods. It is conceivable wen the authorities decide to blame “Imperialism” for it.

In Cairo, on Sunday morning, correspondents there reported a “serious” police presence in the streets. A month ago, the relative success of the strike and the incidents of Mahalla where security forces clashed with protesters were followed by a vague of arrests against traditional and virtual activists. Security forces are catching up with creativity by arresting bloggers and facebook users who might be potentially dangerous.
Remember Esraa Abdel Fattah who has been detained for hours last month just because she was behind the facebook page calling for the 6th of April strike. And remember how the Egyptian police arrested bloggers before even starting to arrest the hundreds of demonstrators. Bloggers in Egypt seem to be perceived as a potential threat to National Security, that’s what I understand from the official Egyptian reaction.

Apparently the preventive actions against activists are the right weapon in the hands of our local tyrants.
In Jordan, on the evening of Sunday’s strike, three members of the Jordanian Left Social Movement were arrested for distributing pamphlets calling citizens to be part of the strike that will only last till 11 a.m. One more detail left, the Jordanian authorities denied arresting anyone… Classical!
Meanwhile, correspondents in Jordan say that facebook has been a tool widely used to diffuse the call for the strike. I am sure it’s a matter of time before facebookers and bloggers in Jordan become officially a National Security threat.

The outcome of these two strikes was practically a failure related partly to intimidation, but also to a lack of a political culture practiced within healthy and democratic multiparty system.
No wonder why the ruling parties in the Arab World are generally the only ones capable of mobilizing on demand. We pay the price in Fundamental, Civil, and Political Liberties for them to stay in power in the name of stablility and security.

The choice of the 4th of May for the Egyptian strike was not a coincidence; it was the 80th birthday of Egyptian President Hosni Mobarak. Today he can sit back and relax, he had a happy one!

According to all the international reports, food and prices crisis is a part of a global economic crisis settling down surely with no real international solutions for it, just alarming reports. So we will have to expect more demonstrations and movements related to that matter in the near future. That will hopefully give the oppositions in Arab Countries more chances to mobilize.
Incidentally, a demonstration under the same slogan is planned in Beirut on the 7th of may, but the Clausewitzean style might be the best way of describing it before it even happens: It will just be the continuation of the struggle between the '8th' and '14th of March' fronts by other means.

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Mayday for the New Left

By Joseph El-Khoury


2004 was a good year for the Left in Lebanon. After years of peripatetic confusion, previously disparate groups and individuals came together to found the first viable alternative to the symbolic heavyweight that is the Lebanese Communist Party (LCP). The result was the Democratic Left Movement in Lebanon (DLM). The attendees came from a variety of background, from the young westernised students to ex-party apparatchiks in addition to intellectuals and civil society activists. They had in common two main things: A problematic love and hate relationship with the communists and an antagonism towards the Syrian occupation and its Lebanese apparatus. During this process the organisers failed to notice the absence of any significant representation of the working classes or the rural sectors. That omission would be at the root of a major flaw in the party’s identity.

The name itself appears to have been chosen in order not to offend but also to reassure a mainstream section of a weary Lebanese public. Political parties and militant movements of various denominations had been struggling to regain popularity and were widely blamed for the demise of the pre-war prosperous and conservative merchant Lebanese republic. The emphasis on democracy was in opposition to the Soviet model of 'democratic centralism' still operational within the ossified LCP but also to reinforce the new party’s social-democratic credentials, which were clearly stated in the mission statement. The Leftist banner is at best a colourless one in the context of the Lebanese scene where well-defined words such as socialism and nationalism are routinely recycled to suit the narrow interests of feudal warlords without the hint of accountability. Nonetheless it at least denotes a progressive attitude motivated by the interests of the majority and a concern for human and social rights while distancing itself from any Marxist heritage. The term movement is fluid and reflects the intention to import a flexible internal, almost federalized, model which allows for official currents to form and fight it out within the boundaries of the party.

In essence, the DLM was modern and keen to break with the past. A 21st century party for a 21st century country. Until the assassination of the ex-prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, the DLM remained embryonic and engaged with school ground skirmishes with its more powerful cousin to the left. It emerges to the public eye through its charismatic leader Samir Kassir and his role in the Beirut Spring movement which ends with the departure of Syrian troops from the country. Unfortunately Kassir is assassinated a few months later, leaving the organisation headless and directionless. Elias Atallah, former military commander within the LCP, takes centre stage and wins a seat in the Lebanese parliament carried by the sectarian weight of the pro-Hariri Sunni electorate in North Lebanon. From that point onwards the story of the DLM is that of the Anti-Syrian Alliance known as March 14th. Repeatedly Atallah fails to act as a promoter of secular, social and democratic values, preferring to align his positions to those of his old friend the Druze leader Walid Joumblat. While voices of discontent emerge within his own party, crystallizing in 2007 in the ‘Keep Left’ faction, they remain unable to formulate a strategy or a vision for their movement.

In 2008 the DLM is in disarray stuck in the moving sands of sectarian alliances that have defined the political scene for the past 3 years. Shaken by an identity crisis and hostage to a leadership taught at the school of organisational Stalinism this experiment is in need of a shake-up and productive soul searching. Only then will it be able to redefine its mission and sell it to a Lebanese people eager for a way out of the labyrinth.